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THE
EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI OF 15 NOVEMBER 2006 IN THE KURIL ISLANDS
George
Pararas-Carayannis
  Introduction
On 15 November 2006,
a great earthquake occurred off the coast near the Kuril Islands.
In spite of the quake's large 8.3 magnitude, a relatively small
tsunami was generated. The small tsunami was recorded or observed
in Japan and at distant locations throughout the Pacific.
Date and
Time of Occurrence
Wednesday, November
15, 2006 at 11:14:16 (UTC)_= Coordinated Universal Time (Local
date and time at epicenter: Wednesday, November 15, 2006 at 10:14:16
PM )
Epicenter
Location
Latitude:
46.616°N, Longitude: 153.224°E near the Kuril Islands,
Russia USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
 Distances
The earthquake occurred:
245 miles east of the island of Etorofu (Japanese name) or Iturup
(Russian name), which is about 110 miles northeast of Hokkaido,
Japan.
440 km () ENE of Kuril'sk, Kuril Islands, 443 kilometers (about
277 miles east - northeast of Kuril'sk
500 km (310 miles) SSW of Severo-Kuril'sk, Kuril Islands, Russia
and
1650 km (103 miles) northeast of Tokyo, Japan.
Magnitude
- 8.3
Focal Depth
- 28.5 km (17.7 miles)
Aftershocks
- There were many aftershocks after
the main quake. Four large aftershocks measured 6.5, 6.3, 6.0
and 6.2
Sesimic
Activity in the Region - There
was significant seismic activity in the region since September
2006
USGS
Graphic of Earthquake Epicenter and Aftershocks
Seismicity
of the Northern Japan/Kuril island Region
The Kuril islands
and Japan is one of the world's most earthquake-prone regions
in the world. _Around 20 per cent of the world's earthquakes
take place in this region. The seismicity of Northern Japan is
the result of a double seismic zone (DSZ), and compressional
deep trench and outer rise events and by the magmatic effects
of plumes or superplumes which, originally, may have hydrated
the subducting oceanic lithosphere. Usually, shallow normal faulting
occurs in the trench-outer rise region.
The volcanic Kuril
island chain runs from the northern tip of Hokkaido to the southern
tip of Russia's Kamchatka Peninsula. It is also a region of high
seismic activity.
The area where the
November 15, 2006 earthquake occurred had earthquakes over a
magnitude of 8.0 in 1952, 1963, 1994 and 2003.
Damages
and Death Toll from Earthquake and Tsunami
There were no reports
of damage or injuries, according to NHK (Japan). At Hokkaido
Prefecture all trains were stopped as a precautionary measure.
Tectonic
Setting of the Northern Japan/Kuril Island Region
The overall tectonics
of northeast Asia are very complicated. Whether the Sea of Okhotsk
and the northern Japanese islands are part of the North American
plate or of a separate Okhotsk plate has not been determined.
On the Pacific Ocean side, earthquake slip vectors along the
Kuril and Japan trenches are consistent with either a Pacific-North
America or a Pacific-Okhotsk plate motion. We will assume that
the Pacific-North America plate motion is better supported.
The Kuril island arc is located between the Kamchatka Peninsula
and the Japanese island of Hokkaido. The Kuril Trench has been
formed by the subduction of the Pacific plate under the North
American plate. It extends from the offshore central area of
Kamchatka to Hokkaido.
The plate tectonics of the Southern Kuril islands-Northern Hokkaido
region are quite complex and very different than those along
the southern portion of the Japanese Trench. The South Kuril
Islands are part of the Kuril arc in the Okhotsk plate which
has been colliding westward against the Northeast Japan arc,
along the Hidaka Collision Zone (HCZ), where new continental
crust is created by active arc-arc collision.
Deep seismic reflection studies (Ito, Kazuka @Abe, 2001) show
the lower crust of the Kuril arc to be delaminated at a depth
of about 23 km. These studies indicate that the upper half (above
23 km) - consisting of the earth's upper crust and the upper
portion of lower crust of the Kuril arc - is thrusting over the
Northeast Japan arc along the Hidaka Main Thrust (HMT). However,
the lower half (below 23 km) - consisting of the lower portion
of lower crust and upper mantle material - is descending downward.
Ocean bottom morphology
of Kamchatka, the Kuril Island Trench, Sakhalin Island, and the
Sea of Okhotsk.
As a result of such
kinematic processes, the wedge of the Northeast Japan arc is
intruded into the delaminated Kuril arc, as the Pacific plate
is subducting northward beneath both of the above mentioned structures,
thus continuing the arc-arc collision (and continental crust
production). The complex, seismo- tectonic kinematic process
of this region has been named "Delamination-wedge-subduction
system" - which may apply also to other areas where active
arc-arc collision and concurrent subduction take place.
Accordingly, Hokkaido - Japan's northernmost island - extends
northeast into Kuril Islands and is composed of multiple compressed
island arcs. The northern half of Honshu (north of Tokyo), which
is Japan's main island, represents a typical mature island arc,
while the southern half of the island represents also a typical
mature island arc, as the Philippine Sea plate subducts below
the Eurasian plate.
On the western side, the Sea of Japan is a complex basin between
Japan and the Korea/Okhotsk Sea Basin. It represents another
subplate with apparent rotational movement as it interacts against
the Okhotsk plate, along the inland sea boundary of the Hidaka
Collision Zone (HCZ).
Sakhalin island, north of Hokkaido, which separates the Sea of
Japan from the Sea of Okhotsk, is probably the result of transpressional
tectonics along the North America-Eurasia boundary.
THE
TSUNAMI OF 15 NOVEMBER 2006
A relatively small
tsunami was generated which was observed and recorded at distant
locations in the Pacific. Based on the earthquake aftershock
distribution, the tsunami generating area was estimated to be
approximately 120 by 150 kilometers.
Observations
and Records of the Tsunami
JAPAN -
Hokkaido Island
Nemuro - A small tsunami wave of about
40cm (16 inches ) was recorded at 9:29 p.m. at the port of Nemuro
on Japan's northernmost island of Hokkaido.
Kushiro - 25cm/0.8ft. An 8-inch wave hit
the nearby port city of Kushiro. A series of three smaller waves
followed.
Hanasaki - 30cm/1.0ft
ALASKA - Shemya -
20cm/0.65ft , Amchitka
- 8cm/0.25ft
Tsunami
Watches, Warnings and Advisories
Fourteen minutes after
the quake the Japan's Meteorological Agency (JMA) issued a tsunami
warning for the eastern Pacific coast and the Okhotsk Sea coast
of Hokkaido. JMA later downgraded its warning for Hokkaido to
an advisory.
The Pacific Tsunami
Warning Center issued a tsunami warning which extended form eastern
Russia to Guam. The tsunami warning area also included Taiwan,
the islands of Marcus, Wake and Midway, and the North Marianas
and Marshall islands. A tsunami watch was declared for the Philippines,
Indonesia, Kiribati, Nauru, Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands,
Tuvalu and Vietnam. A tsunami advisory was issued for Hawaii.
The Alaska Tsunami Warning Center, issued a tsunami warning for
the Alaskan coast from Sand Point to Attu, and a tsunami watch
for the parts of Alaska, British Columbia and Washington state
from Cape Flattery, Washington to Sand Point, Alaska.
Based on the small tsunami that was detected, all warnings, watches
and advisories were canceled for the entire Pacific and Alaska.
Recent
Tsunamis Generated along the South Kuril Trench
The Earthquakes
and Tsunamis of 13 and 19 October 1963
A pair of large magnitude
earthquakes occurred in the same general area of the Kuril Islands
on the 13 and 19 of October 1963. The 13 October earthquake had
an Ms = 8.1 and an Mw = 8.5 while the 19 October earthquake had
an Ms = 7.2 and an Mw = 7.8. Both had maximum reported runups
of 0.4 meters in Hawaii.
 The Earthquake and
Tsunami of October 4, 1994
Kuril Islands - Most affected by the damaging
waves of this tsunami were the islands of Shikotan, Kunashir
and Iturup, in the South Kurils. According to reports, Shikotan
Island was one of the hardest-hit areas by both the earthquake
and the tsunami. Following the disaster, a team of international
scientists made measurements of tsunami runup heights at Shikotan,
Iturup, Kunashir, and the small islands between Shikotan and
Hokkaido (Yeh et al, 1995). Maximum runup on Shikotan Island
was reported to be approximately 10 m (about 30 feet) high.
Epicenter of the 1994
Earthquake - Tsunami Generation Area
Since the South Kuril Island region has a long history of many
large, local tsunamis, the people in this region were fairly
well prepared. This probably accounts for the low death toll
for the October 4, 1994 tsunami - in spite of its high runup
(Pararas-Carayannis, 1995).
Japan - The areas most affected by the
1994 tsunami were Kushiro, Hachinohe, Chichijima and Hanasaki,
on the island of Hokkaido. One person was killed and 140 more
were injured. Runup measurements along the Hokkaido coast were
carried out by a team of scientists from Japan's Tohoku University
(Takahashi and Shuto, 1994). Maximum tsunami runup in Nemuro
was approximately 1.8 m.
Hawaiian Islands
- The tsunami waves
were not damaging in Hawaii but were readily recorded by tide
gauges. The highest recorded wave at Midway Island was 0.54 meters
(peak to trough) and in Kahului, Maui, 0.8 meters (peak to trough).
Past
Earthquakes and Tsunamis in the Northern Japan/Kuril Island Region
(since 1963)
Review of the historic
record indicates that the following tsunamis were generated in
recent years near Kamtchatka, the Kuril Islands, Northern Japan
and the Sea of Japan:
October 13, 1963
- Kuril Islands (MS=8.1,
I=2.5) - Urup tsunami.
June 16, 1964 - Sea of Japan - (MS=7.5) - Niigata
tsunami (26 dead).
August 11, 1969 - Kuril Islands (MS=7.8, I=2.0)
- Shikotan tsunamis.
November 22, 1969
- Kamchatka (MS=7.7,
I =3.0) - Ozernoy tsunami.
May 25, 1983 - Northern part of Sea of Japan
(MS= 7.7) - (104 dead).
January 15, 1993
- Japan / Hokkaido
(MS=7.8) - Kushiro tsunami, one dead.
July 12, 1993 - Japan Sea (MS=7.7, I=3.0) -
Okushiri tsunami ( Maximum Wave Height 30.2m) (more than 200
dead).
October 4, 1994 -
South Kuril Islands/Northern
Japan Hokkaido(MS=8.1, I=2.6) - Shikotan tsunami (8 dead in Kuril
Islands).
Tsunamigenic
Potential of the Hokkaido/Kuril Island Region. Assessment of
the November 15, 2006 Tsunami - Why no Larger Pacific-wide Tsunami
was Generated?
It would have been
expected that the large magnitude earthquake (M 8.3) of November
15, 2006 would have generated a much greater, Pacific-wide tsunami.
The geometry of subduction and tectonic interactions along volcanic
arcs are different than those of other tectonic collision boundaries
- thus unique in tsunami generation. Pacific plate subduction
along the southern Kuril Trench results in mega continental tension
gashes that are parallel to the direction of convergence (Gelabert
et al. 2001). Also the tension along convergent boundaries results
in steep dipping faults that may be normal, strike-slip or thrust
faults.
To understand the
dynamics of tsunami generation by large earthquakes in this region,
we must look at the subduction processes and the mechanics of
arc collision that create volcanic arcs such as the Kuril Islands
and extensional back-arc basins - such as the Sea of Okhotsk.
Subduction and Arc-Arc
Collision - Subduction
along the Japan and Kuril Trenches has been primarily responsible
for many large historical earthquakes and catastrophic tsunamis
on the Pacific side of Northern Japan and the South and Central
Kuril island region (see section above about the tectonic setting).
Most of the tsunamis had destructive near field effects but limited
far field impact. The only recent exception may be the 1952 Kamtchatka
earthquake - which occurred much further north - and generated
a tsunami with significant far field, Pacific-wide, impact.
The Pacific plate converges into northeastern Asia (the Okhotsk
subplate which is part of the North American plate, separated
from the Eurasian plate by the Hidaka Collision Zone (HCZ)).
The rate of tectonic convergence along the Kamchatka, Kuril and
Japan trenches is estimated at about 8-9 m per century - which
is a very high. Hokkaido, which extends northeast into Kuril
Islands is composed of multiple compressed island arcs.
In the past two centuries this fast rate of subduction has triggered
several large earthquakes with magnitudes of up to 8 or more
along the southern Kuril trench, near the island of Hokkaido.
However, these historical earthquakes have ruptured segments
of the trench and of the forearc region that have been only in
the range of 100-200 km long. Thus, these must be considered
as characteristic of most plate-boundary earthquakes for this
volcanic arc region. The Kuril Island Earthquakes of 13 October
1963 (Ms = 8.1; Mw = 8.5) the 19 October 1963 (Ms = 7.2; Mw =
7.8) and the October 4, 1994, did generate destructive local
tsunamis but the far field effects were not significant.
The November 15, 2006 tsunami - like those of 1994 and of 1963
- occurred on the Pacific side boundary of the smaller tectonic
subplate which includes the Sea of Okhotsk and possibly a portion
of the northern part of the Sea of Japan (Pararas-Carayannis,
1995).
Apparently, the grinding motion of the North Pacific Plate against
this subplate, results in large earthquakes - such as those of
1963 and 1994 - but apparently with less vertical subduction
and more rotational movement. For example, the 1994 quake resulted
in only about 50 cm of land subsidence but in extensive lateral
movement at Shikotan Island. A greater amount of subsidence would
have been expected, given the earthquake's large magnitude.
Also, the October 4, 1994 earthquake generated a destructive
local tsunami with runup height of up to 10 meters in the South
Kuril islands but the far field effects were not significant.
Maximum runup along the coast of Hokkaido, Japan, was 1.8 meters
(at Nemuro). Maximum runup in the Hawaiian islands was 0.8 meters
(at Kahului, Maui).
The Effect of Rupture
Length - The length
of earthquake rupture as inferred from the distribution of aftershocks
- is a major factor in the tsunami generation mechanism and on
whether there will be significant far field tsunami impact.
The crustal area in the Southern Kuril Islands and Northern Hokkaido,
along the northern part of the Japan and Kuril Trenches, appears
to be highly fractured. As described previously, the South Kuril
Islands are part of the Kuril arc in the Okhotsk plate which
has been also colliding westward against the Northeast Japan
arc, along the Hidaka Collision Zone (HCZ), where new continental
crust is created by active arc-arc collision.
Crustal displacements appear to be occurring along these boundaries
of highly fractured subplates that may not be longer than 250-300
km and probably much less. Also, it appears that these fractured
smaller plates limit the extent of crustal displacements and,
therefore, the energy imparted for tsunami generation.
The majority of earthquakes
in the central and southern Kuril islands and the Hokkaido region
- even those of large magnitude - usually involve single segment
ruptures along the Kuril trench - segments that are truncated
by oblique asperities. Such earthquakes with relatively short
ruptures do not generate very large Pacific-wide tsunamis. Most
of the destructive effects of such tsunamis are local in the
Kuril Islands and northern Hokkaido region.
Crustal Delamination
and Transpressional Effects -
If delamination occurs below 23 km - as postulated (Ito, Kazuka
@Abe, 2001) - such process would also account for the smaller
tsunami as there is less vertical movement of crustal material
below 23 km and more lateral movement above. As it was pointed
out the 1994 earthquake resulted in only about 50 cm of land
subsidence but extensive lateral movement at Shikotan Island.
The earthquake of
November 15, 2006 had a focal depth of 28.5 km. Given the short
rupture of the earthquake and the focal depth below the delamination
boundary of 23 km, this would explain why no major tsunami was
generated that had significant far field effects. Most of the
earthquake's energy went into lateral transpressional movement
along this boundary of subduction - filling the void caused by
Kuril arc migration by pushing the subducting (and denser) plate
horizontally towards the extensional basin (Sea of Okhotsk) -
as in 1994.
Can this
region generate tsunamis that can have significant far field
destructive effects (Pacific-wide)?
Based on the stratigraphic
distribution of deposits of historical tsunamis found in Japan,
it has been inferred that unusually large tsunamis have occurred
about every 500 years on the average in this region. Therefore,
we can conclude that the rupture of two or more segments along
the Japan Trench or the central and southern Kuril Trench is
possible, but that the resulting earthquakes and tsunamis (that
may have a far field impact) are extremely rare but may occur
every 500 years or more.
REFERENCES
AND FURTHER READING
The following are
selected references for further reading on the kinematics of
tectonic interactions along the Japanese and Kuril Island arcs
which historically have produced numerous destructive tsunamis.
GELABERT, B., SABAT, F., RODRIGUEZ-PEREA, A. , and FORNS, J.,
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Pararas-Carayannis G. 1983, The Earthquake and Tsunami of 26
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http://drgeorgepc.com/Tsunami1983Japan.html
Pararas-Carayannis
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http://drgeorgepc.com/Tsunami1994RussiaKurils.html
Pararas-Carayannis
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Seno, T. 1999. Is northern Honshu a microplate? Tectonophysics
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Seno, T. 1999. Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo,
Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-0032, Japan The Island Arc, 8, 66-79, 1999
Tanioka, Y., and K. Satake (1996). Fault parameters of the 1896
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Walker Daniel A.,
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Watanabe, T., T. Koyaguchi,
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